Improving forecasting accuracy of crude oil price using decomposition ensemble model with reconstruction of IMFs based on ARIMA model

The accuracy of crude oil price forecasting is more important especially for economic development and considered as the lifeblood of the industry. Hence, in this paper, a decomposition-ensemble model with the reconstruction of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) is proposed for forecasting the crude oil prices based on the well-known autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model. Essentially, the reconstruction of IMFs enhances the forecasting accuracy of the existing decomposition ensemble models. The proposed methodology works in four steps: decomposition of the complex data into several IMFs using EEMD, reconstruction of IMFs based on order of ARIMA model, prediction of every reconstructed IMF, and finally ensemble the prediction of every IMF for the final output. A case study was carried out using two crude oil prices time series (i.e. Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)). The empirical results exhibited that the reconstruction of IMFs based on order of ARIMA model was adequate and provided the best forecast. In order to check the correctness, robustness and generalizability, simulations were carried out

Optimal design of Remote Terminal Unit (RTU) for power system operation in smart cities

The concept of smart cities involves specifically modified infrastructure for its physical, economic and social systems which is mandatory to provide improved facilities to citizens at various levels. The major infrastructure is energy which is mainly distributed in the form of Electricity. Therefore power system operation must be optimized by making it intelligent and environmental friendly by including renewable resources and green ICT systems to achieve greater energy efficiency. In the Europe, the EU has taken an initiative by launching a concrete policy framework to make their cities capable of more energy efficient, reduction of relying on fossil fuels achieving reduction Carbon Dioxide emissions, improved impact by adding renewable energy resources to power grid. The implementation of this significant policy framework would also result in climate improvement. The EU is targeting year 2020 to accomplish such implementations. There are several ways to ensure sustainability but the addition of renewable energy resources with existing grid capacity in an intelligent manner can be an effective solution. In such addition, an optimal generation policy may be developed incorporating power flow model, contingency analysis and determination of good locations. Such generation policy can be implemented using a High Scale SCADA System. In general, the SNMP (Simple Network Management Protocol) based RTUs (Remote Terminal Units) are essential part of SCADA system so an optimal design of RTU for Energy Management System (EMS) is of high interest. This talk will describe contingency analysis with its outcome, Model of Optimized EMS and having focus on Optimal RTU Design including Optimization of RF Communication Link for RTU.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. I

Estimating Reliability of Telecommunication and Electronic Devices

This talk mainly focused on understanding of reliability parameters such as Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) and Mean Time To Repair (MTTR). These parameters are further explored for estimation of reliability with special reference to Telecommunication and electronic devices. This talk is being augmented by adding few practical analyses of interest. Moreover, the topic is also linked with electronic design automation considering concept of Built In Self Test (BIST) for electronic chips and circuits based systems containing Telecommunication and electronic devices.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Sustainable framework form smart transportation system: a case study of Karachi

In this talk, a framework of smart transportation system is proposed, aiming to address the transportation problem in Karachi city. In modern day world, the mega cities and urban areas are on the edge of transformation into smart cities. With the advancement of engineering and technology, smart cities are designed to integrate and utilize these scientific innovations to provide smart solutions and social innovations for sustainable infrastructure, thus they are able to provide its resident highest quality of life by utilizing its resources effectively. One of the major application of smart cities is the Smart Transportation System, which provides safer, quick, environment friendly service to the residents. Thus, this study highlights the current traffic situation of Karachi and propose a framework to transform it into a smart transportation system. In order to have a smart transportation system, it is necessary to have in-depth knowledge and information about the city dynamics and its traffic related issues. Therefore, this study also highlights current traffic situation of Karachi, its road conditions and capacity, vehicles condition, alternate mean of transport (other than road-based system) and its present condition, and finally proposes a framework to develop a smart transportation system while keeping in mind the aforesaid traffic problems.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech